Summary
Whenever we make changes, we affect the lives of people in the future -- and that responsibility can feel enormous. In this talk, Devon Powers will share some of her research into people who forecast the future for a living, revealing their strategies as well as their pitfalls. She will also discuss how you can engage in research with a sense of responsibility for tomorrow.
Key Insights
-
•
Technological innovation rarely solves social problems; it often replicates them in new spaces, as seen with harassment incidents in the metaverse.
-
•
Excessive optimism in futures thinking risks ignoring real challenges, whereas excessive pessimism leads to hopelessness.
-
•
Trend forecasting is both predictive and culture-producing, shaping how society imagines and pursues futures.
-
•
Many trend forecasters distance themselves from accountability by focusing on futures they and their clients will not personally inhabit.
-
•
Futures visions dominated by wealthy, white, cosmopolitan men tend to overlook systemic inequalities and sustain existing power structures.
-
•
Afrofuturism offers a critical framework that centers Black experiences, addressing history and ongoing struggles rather than erasing them in future imaginaries.
-
•
Globality in futures work requires deep, meaningful engagement with diverse cultures, not superficial collection of exotic ideas.
-
•
The obsession with cutting-edge technology in envisioning futures can distract from critical, everyday needs like clean water, food security, and freedom from violence.
-
•
Sober or tragic optimism allows for hope and progress while acknowledging struggle, unintended consequences, and complexity in the future.
-
•
Democratic futures require transparency in methods and accountability in outcomes, focusing on equity and inclusion for those the futures are imagined for.
Notable Quotes
"The metaverse has not summoned those angels; instead, it has brought in all the good and the bad from the real world."
"We can’t just think technology or innovation will solve our problems; we have to embrace and work with those problems."
"If I do a project today on 2025, you’re not going to be in that chair in 2025 and neither am I."
"Too often, futures imaginaries want to erase or align difference rather than reckon with it."
"Trend forecasting is a culture industry—it produces culture as much as it predicts it."
"Naming things like the 'vibe shift' is powerful in shaping the narratives around future developments."
"The future will be struggle; we need to face that forward, not deny it."
"Afrofuturism shows us the future must reckon with the past and center difference and diversity."
"Obsession with gadgetry and cool tech ignores the fact that most critical future changes are mundane and essential, like clean water."
"The future is not a toy. Accountability matters deeply in how we construct futures."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"During roadmapping time, let's bring our roadmaps together and discover synergies."
Brad Peters Anne MamaghaniShort Take #1: UX/Product Lessons from Your Industry Peers
December 6, 2022
"Creating an environment where people feel safe to try design helps build enthusiasm and psychological safety."
Lona MooreScaling Design Beyond Designers
June 11, 2021
"AI delivers signals, not hard truths. They’re dream machines designed to imagine what could happen next."
Josh Clark Veronika KindredSentient Design, AI, and the Radically Adaptive Experience (1st of 3 seminars)
January 15, 2025
"Being involved early in product planning lets us bring the art and science of research to where it can be most helpful."
Erin May Roberta Dombrowski Laura Oxenfeld Brooke HintonDistributed, Democratized, Decentralized: Finding a Research Model to Support Your Org
March 10, 2022
"Follow-up questions missed opportunities to probe deeper or were confusing, and participants had to repeat themselves."
Tara TresselInvestigating qualitative depth of AI-moderated interviews
March 10, 2026
"It's really about finding a way to link all the different aspects to bring everything together to tell the story."
Charles Lee Jennie YipBuilding a New Home for the Atlassian Design System
October 22, 2020
"When we tailor education to individual needs, everyone benefits."
Kristin SkinnerFive Years of DesignOps
September 29, 2021
"Hoard and reuse your jewels. Those proven frameworks can amplify every hour of your work."
Megan BlockerGetting to the “So What?”: How Management Consulting Practices Can Transform Your Approach to Research
March 26, 2024
"Systems change happens at the human scale by making structures and humans visible so we can investigate and change them together."
Shanti Mathew Natalie Sims Natalia RadywylCivic Design at Scale: Introducing the Public Policy Layer Cake
December 9, 2021