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Wargaming (An Introduction)
Summary
What is wargaming and how can the process be used to inform and refine strategic planning? First, what is wargaming? Terry will start with a short presentation giving the historical perspective and military usage of wargaming. Second, will be how the process can inform and refine strategic planning and decision-making. Here we will pivot to describing non-military contexts/examples for wargaming (strategic planning/decision support). Third, he will solicit ideas participants might have for problems where wargaming could be helpful, and together will quickly iterate a wargame concept for the juiciest of these ideas.
Key Insights
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War gaming has ancient origins, with Sun Tzu formalizing strategic concepts over 2000 years ago.
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The Naval War College’s war gaming helped turn the tide of the Pacific War in World War II through predictive simulations.
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War gaming differs from tabletop exercises, seminars, and rehearsals of concept primarily in its competitive, adversarial nature and evolving scenario.
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Human interplay is a fundamental element distinguishing war games from mere simulations or models.
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Data collected from war games is often qualitative and analyzed thematically to gauge decision-making quality and scenario fidelity.
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War games can be run multiple times with the same scenario, acknowledging that individual decisions vary depending on timing and context.
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Developing personas or emulations of opposing actors is common in war games to model realistic adversary behavior.
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War games have practical applications beyond military, including business strategy, advocacy, and leadership transitions.
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Move-countermove pacing in war games enhances depth of strategic thinking compared to synchronous simultaneous moves.
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Though costly and time-intensive, smaller and quicker war games are possible, especially outside of classified military environments.
Notable Quotes
"If you know yourself and your enemy, then you’re guaranteed victory."
"War games really are research — creative and systematic work to gain knowledge and improve decision making."
"A tabletop exercise is like we’re all on the same team building a plan, but a war game is competition against other teams."
"Without human interplay, it’s a simulation or model, not a war game."
"Sometimes the best way to understand a problem is to run the game multiple times and see why decisions differ."
"In our war games, persona-like emulations represent groups or leadership apparatus, not just single individuals."
"The goal of war gaming is to provide better quality information at the right time for better decisions."
"War gaming can be used by advocacy groups to test moves against policymakers and lobbyists before taking real-world actions."
"Plans are useless, but planning is everything — that’s what war gaming is about."
"Some war games, like modeling a thermonuclear war, are no-win scenarios, which is why we spend so much time trying to prevent that."
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