How Research Can Drive Strategic Foresight
Summary
Did you know that the terms "bureaucracy" and "information worker" were both invented by sociologists, long before either thing existed? Did you know that the 2008 crash was accurately predicted by an anthropologist? Many people don't realize that social research drives robust foresight. This is the kind of value even a very junior UX researcher can contribute. In this talk, Sam Ladner will describe how researchers can sift and track weak signals, how to create trend reports, and how to predict areas of change.
Key Insights
-
•
Confidence is essential for UX researchers to lead strategic foresight and gain a seat at the decision-making table.
-
•
Max Weber’s insight of standardized paper led to the concept of bureaucracy, showing mundane objects can signal systemic shifts.
-
•
Strategic foresight requires combining technological, social, economic, and political signals, not just focusing on new technologies.
-
•
Avoiding WEIRD biases is critical; mental models differ vastly across cultures and affect research outcomes.
-
•
A generic foresight framework involves scanning signals, interpreting them, imagining futures, then planning strategies accordingly.
-
•
Backcasting, imagining a future and then working backwards, is a powerful alternative to traditional forecasting.
-
•
Rigorous foresight means being able to explain your research choices and tradeoffs, not just following scientific method blindly.
-
•
Persistent scanning and well-organized coding systems, inspired by the historical commonplace book, help track and synthesize weak signals over time.
-
•
Anthropologist Gillian Tett successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis by integrating social, cultural, and technological changes.
-
•
Being too early with a prediction is okay; maintaining preparedness and continually collecting data is key to eventual success.
Notable Quotes
"This talk is more than anything else, it’s about confidence."
"You have to have a point of view, and you have to lead in order to get that impact in strategic foresight."
"Some of the most mundane objects can signal change."
"The boss’s son is no longer the default backup boss; there are now written rules accessible to all."
"When you mix trends together, you will see where change is likely to occur."
"You have to be careful not to be too weird; mental models differ internationally."
"Rigour really is just a method; it’s knowing why you made the choices and tradeoffs you did."
"Sometimes you’re too early. Don’t fear. File this away and keep your powder dry."
"I am swimming in a sea of information, like a little fish, and eating all the stuff."
"Ask yourself, who is not included in this future? Be self-reflexive to reduce bias."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"There’s a lot of work to do aligning design systems so designers, engineers, and business analysts speak the same language."
Dave Malouf Patrizia Bertini Jon FukudaThe Past, Present, and Future of DesignOps: a 2-part DesignOps Community Call (Part 2)
April 28, 2022
"Cities are not at the heart of global climate discussions, yet they hold tremendous opportunity for change."
Jayne Engle Tanya Chung-Tiam-FookCivic Design for the Next Seven Generations—A Discussion on Sacred Civics
August 25, 2022
"It’s really hard when all that tacit knowledge walks out the door every time someone leaves."
Frances Yllana Jorge Arango Maria Taylor Briana ThomasThe Big Question about Impact: A Panel Discussion
September 24, 2024
"We lacked the insight to interpret what we were seeing in ways that were culturally relevant in those particular markets."
Joi FreemanA New Vantage Point: Building a Pipeline for Multifaceted Research(ers)
March 30, 2020
"The true enabler of a successful innovation is not the new technology or clever business model, but the human beings involved."
Laura WeissTurn Down the Heat: 3 Ways to Handle Conflict in the Moment
November 20, 2024
"Moving fast into prototyping helps keep momentum going beyond the fun ideation phase to actual implementation."
Stephanie WadeBuilding and Sustaining Design in Government
December 8, 2021
"Not every Design Ops person is the same, and Design Ops is going to look very different at every company."
Dave Malouf Meredith Black Farid SabitovThe Past, Present, and Future of DesignOps: a 2-part DesignOps Community Call (Part 1)
February 17, 2022
"A producer is probably in JIRA day-to-day, running tasks, creating tickets and epics, while a program manager tracks board-level timelines."
Panel Discussion: Communicating the Value of DesignOps
November 7, 2018
"Our principle is that whatever we build must help researchers avoid becoming a silo."
Sofia QuinteroThe Product Philosophy Behind EnjoyHQ
March 10, 2021
Latest Books All books
Dig deeper with the Rosenbot
How does involving more senior researchers in the field improve research outcomes when AI handles transcript processing?
What does the acquisition of User Interviews by UserTesting mean for participants and research ops teams?
In what ways can AI tools accelerate value delivery in design operations, and what pitfalls should be avoided?