Summary
Did you know that the terms "bureaucracy" and "information worker" were both invented by sociologists, long before either thing existed? Did you know that the 2008 crash was accurately predicted by an anthropologist? Many people don't realize that social research drives robust foresight. This is the kind of value even a very junior UX researcher can contribute. In this talk, Sam Ladner will describe how researchers can sift and track weak signals, how to create trend reports, and how to predict areas of change.
Key Insights
-
•
Confidence is essential for UX researchers to lead strategic foresight and gain a seat at the decision-making table.
-
•
Max Weber’s insight of standardized paper led to the concept of bureaucracy, showing mundane objects can signal systemic shifts.
-
•
Strategic foresight requires combining technological, social, economic, and political signals, not just focusing on new technologies.
-
•
Avoiding WEIRD biases is critical; mental models differ vastly across cultures and affect research outcomes.
-
•
A generic foresight framework involves scanning signals, interpreting them, imagining futures, then planning strategies accordingly.
-
•
Backcasting, imagining a future and then working backwards, is a powerful alternative to traditional forecasting.
-
•
Rigorous foresight means being able to explain your research choices and tradeoffs, not just following scientific method blindly.
-
•
Persistent scanning and well-organized coding systems, inspired by the historical commonplace book, help track and synthesize weak signals over time.
-
•
Anthropologist Gillian Tett successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis by integrating social, cultural, and technological changes.
-
•
Being too early with a prediction is okay; maintaining preparedness and continually collecting data is key to eventual success.
Notable Quotes
"This talk is more than anything else, it’s about confidence."
"You have to have a point of view, and you have to lead in order to get that impact in strategic foresight."
"Some of the most mundane objects can signal change."
"The boss’s son is no longer the default backup boss; there are now written rules accessible to all."
"When you mix trends together, you will see where change is likely to occur."
"You have to be careful not to be too weird; mental models differ internationally."
"Rigour really is just a method; it’s knowing why you made the choices and tradeoffs you did."
"Sometimes you’re too early. Don’t fear. File this away and keep your powder dry."
"I am swimming in a sea of information, like a little fish, and eating all the stuff."
"Ask yourself, who is not included in this future? Be self-reflexive to reduce bias."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"Everything is a prototype."
Doug PowellClosing Keynote: Design at Scale
November 8, 2018
"Kids are not little adults. You can’t just simplify the text and call it for kids."
Mila Kuznetsova Lucy DentonHow Lessons Learned from Our Youngest Users Can Help Us Evolve our Practices
March 9, 2022
"In Toronto it’s now illegal to transmit a Wi-Fi signal in designated public spaces, with penalties for violations—a policy driven by people wanting to unplug from digital life."
Sarah GallimoreInspire Progress with Artifacts from the Future
November 18, 2022
"If your users are happy, that anecdotal feedback often carries more weight early than quantitative metrics."
Lada Gorlenko Sharbani Dhar Sébastien Malo Rob Mitzel Ivana Ng Michal Anne RogondinoTheme 1: Discussion
January 8, 2024
"Start tinkering, playing around, and pushing AI’s limits because the industry shift is going to get faster."
Alnie FigueroaThe Future of Design Operations: Transforming Our Craft
September 10, 2025
"Every board member can interpret an NPS score differently depending on their role and responsibilities."
Landon BarnesAre My Research Findings Actually Meaningful?
March 10, 2022
"It’s the worst thing when someone feels dumb in front of a customer because the tools don’t support them."
Emily EagleCan't Rewind: Radio and Retail
June 3, 2019
"We did a blended approach with a visual refresh first to minimize differences between old and new and buy time."
Malini RaoLessons Learned from a 4-year Product Re-platforming Journey
June 9, 2021
"Collaborate and involve design early and often to better align on user goals and reduce friction."
Asia HoePartnering with Product: A Journey from Junior to Senior Design
November 29, 2023